“Sack the BBC! We won’t pay the licence fee”, was the hue and cry of the lunatic Nationalist flash mob fringe attending a demo at Pacific Quay yesterday. It was reported that the BBC janitor suffered cracked ribs from laughing too much. And yesterday wasn’t even a day scheduled for a full moon. “Crackpot website” Newsnet Scotland Tweeted that the event was attended by 2000 people. AhDinnaeKen decided to apply some basic physics based on crowd densities to see if the figures stacked up. Hint! They didn’t:
By Longshanker aka @ergasiophobe
ON SEP 21 2013 at Calton Hill, Edinburgh, Nicola Sturgeon roared: “You know how many people they are saying are here with us today? Not 10,000, not 20,000, but 30,000 people appearing for independence.”
It was a lie. Or to be charitable, it was a communally shared delusion engaged in for the sake of making political capital and building voter morale.
AhDinnaeKen debunked the Sturgeon nonsense using basic crowd density ratios, surface area and distance variables here.
Now, following a worrying outbreak of the modern day Scottish version of the Ranters at Pacific Quay yesterday, the Nationalists are at it again.
Newsnet Scotland claimed that more than 2000 people attended the event…
To back up the claimed figure they provided a YouTube link using a woeful panning shot, filmed virtually from eye level. And they relied upon the shot as if it was some sort of proof.
When you engage in a cheap stunt like that, you have to account for variables such as height perspective, crop factor, distance and surface area.
Take a look at the picture above. Count the people to the left and immediate middle and you’ll reach 17 or thereabouts. The area, when matched with the Google map above, is approx 64 -100m sq – as highlighted by the red area .
In terms of body density to metre square the ratio could be anything between 0.27 to 0.17.
The collection area in front of the BBC building measures approx 2000sq metres i.e. it’s 50m * 40m when measured using the Google scale provided.
2000 multiplied by by 0.27 equals approx 530 people. At the more realistic density level of 0.17 it equals approximately 350 people. Either way, it’s nowhere remotely near 2000 people. So quite where the figure of 2000 came from, we*’d like to know.
And, it was notable that @ergasiophobe’s straw poll estimate of 300 – 500 matched up with the police estimate reported by the “British Brainwashing Corporation”.
The astute and the sceptical could rightly argue that the crowd density figure estimated above could be higher.
But… watch some of the livestream video beamed to the ‘watching world’ by internet TV. At no point does the roaming cameraperson even look like like bumping into anyone – there’s plenty of free space throughout the assembly area.
If you take the time to watch the walkabout sections, you’ll clearly see large open empty spaces everywhere.
According to crowd behaviour expert Dr. Dirk Oberhagemann – who documented the crowd crush tragedy at the Love Parade – free movement like that only occurs when the ratio is well below 1.
We* look forward to our crowd estimate being debunked. It’s at least four times more accurate than Newsnet Scotland’s pitiful attempt.