Moan McVulpine: Building solid foundations on a house of cards

MOAN examines everything but the actual conclusions behind the latest ICM online poll.
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By Moan McVulpineputting the pish into ‘talking pish’

NO NATIONALIST can resist building foundations on shifting sand.

Those were the words of Longshanker the great Scottish writer, author of AhDinnaeKen.

They were made up on the hoof to evoke a cheap laugh – just like the rest of the blog.

But ye couldnae really make up the pish being expostulated by Joan McArthyalpine in the Daily Ranger this morning.

Forty six  per cent of voters intend voting Yes according to an ICM poll.

And that’s enough to get everybody’s pulses racing.

Particularly the Nationalists whose Yes campaign front has fallen apart in ignominy like the eponymous House of Cards.

Joanie’s putting it down to the effect of that great historic ‘game changer’ – the 670 Commandments of Nationalist Assertion. Or Scotland’s Future to give it its official name.

And, while she’s specific about the figure of 46 per cent, she’s a bit more vague when talking about the numbers who have actually signed the Yes Declaration and the stated aim of it gaining a million signatures.

Funny that.

She then uses the mention of the Yes Declaration to repeat the mostly meaningless Barnum statements contained within it e.g. “We are blessed with talent, resources and creativity.”

Bless! Wha’s like us, eh?

What she fails to mention is that, like many of the polls – internet and reality based – weighting/skewing of the polled figures has taken place to make up the numbers.

Consider the following statement from the ubiquitous indy commentator John Curtice: “ICM were only able to interview half as many 16-24 year olds as they wanted to.

“Although this deficit has been overcome by upweighting every 16-24 year old in the poll so that they count as two persons rather than one, it means the poll’s estimate of how this group will behave is based on a particularly small sample and thus can be very volatile – as appears to be true in this instance.”

In other words, like many of the Nationalist – and for balance, Better Together – assertions, it’s mostly meaningless.

As the Professor explained: “Indeed, we might note that if we compare the raw unweighted data in this poll with that in ICM’s previous poll we find that, at 34%, the proportion of Yes voters is exactly the same.”

But that would get in the way of the feel good factor the Yes camp so desperately needs. So Joanie conveniently ignores it.

With the Tories in the hated Westminster getting ever more vicious. With the prospect of nothing but more cuts and meaningless recovery statements reported by the media. And, with the prospect of a future Labouring government sounding like ‘more of the same, only worse’, by rights, the Yes campaign should be doing much much better.

That it plainly isn’t tells a story all its own.

Joanie says a Yes vote will break the distribution of the country’s resources to a rich elite concentrated in one part of the country.

Again, statements like this conveniently half ignore the latest jobs info which showed that London created the most jobs of any city in the UK.

But Edinburgh created the second most.

The conclusion is easy to reach.

Joanie wants to remove power over Scotland from a rich London elite to a rich Edinburgh elite.

Most Scots probably wouldn’t notice the difference, other than the accent, telling them how to take their unpalatable medicine.

There’s a lyric from a song which sums up exactly what would happen in the event of a Yes vote: “Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.”

Roll on September 18.



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